What Does Iran Awaits After Trump Administration?
After the victory of Joe Biden in the United States, Iran is preparing for the resumption of oil and gas exports and production growth. Before the new year, local media reported that Iran's oil ministry had received an order to prepare production facilities for full load within three months. The other day, Iran's oil minister announced record exports during the end of 2020 embargo and called on Biden to lift sanctions.
Since 2018, when President Trump announced the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal and new sanctions against the Islamic Republic, oil supplies from Iran have decreased to nearly 0.3 million barrels per day. Nevertheless, the scale of the drop in exports is significant and significant for the balance in the world oil market.
At the same time, compared to the fall in demand due to COVID-19 in 2020 which at its peak reached almost 20 million bpd the growth of Iranian supply does not pose the biggest threat to the market. The OPEC + mechanism that exists at the moment looks quite capable of compensating for the growth of Iranian supplies by reducing its own production.
The risks to the market from Iranian supplies may be exaggerated. As long as the focus is on post-COVID-19 demand recovery and OPEC + members maintain their partnership, the Iranian factor will have very limited impact. No official statements have yet been received from the United States. Sources of Reuters report that lifting the anti-Iranian sanctions is a long process. The president plans to tackle higher priority issues in the coming months including the promotion of environmental programs.