Goldman Sachs Expects Strongest Oil Demand Growth
According to the representative of Goldman Sachs, global oil demand will grow by 5.2 million barrels per day over the next six months. This will be the most powerful growth in demand for black gold in history and will double the previous record set in 2000.
Goldman Sachs expects global oil demand to rise from the current 94.5 million b/d to 99 million in the third quarter and to 99.7 million b/d in the next six months.
The recent consolidation in commodity prices was driven by a slowdown in economic activity due to new lockdowns in Europe, seasonal factors, and the strengthening of the dollar amid rising Treasury yields. Today, all three of these factors are starting to unfold.
Population mobility data suggest that economic activity is growing thanks to accelerated vaccination rates in Europe. In addition to that, seasonal growth begins in the transport, manufacturing and construction sectors, which will accelerate through June.
When demand exceeds supply, a deficit premium appears, which is reflected in prices. The scale of the imbalance in the raw materials market cannot be underestimated. This market is characterized by inelastic supply because you cannot quickly dig a new mine or harvest a new crop. According to the experts, over the next six months, the commodity index will grow by 13.5%, the price of oil will reach USD 80 a barrel, and the price of copper is USD 11,000 per ton.